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年报点评报告：加大算力投资，天翼云剑指千亿营收
公司发布2022年年报。中国电信发布2022年年报，公司2022年经营收入为4814亿元，同比增长9.5%，服务收入为4349亿元，同比增长8.0%。剔除2021年出售附属公司的收入影响后，同比增幅达到8.1%。净利润为276亿元，同比增长6.3%，剔除2021年出售附属公司的一次性税后收益后，同比增长12.5%。
C端业务稳健增长，智慧家庭与千兆宽带成亮点。2022年，公司移动业务营收1910亿元，同比增长3.7%、移动用户ARPU值45.2元，同比增加0.4%。在5G渗透率提升下，运营商移动业务ARPU值企稳回升态势仍在延续。公司固网及智慧家庭服务收入达到1185亿元，同比增长4.4%，公司综合宽带ARPU达到46.3元，增长0.9%，公司千兆宽带渗透率达到16.8%。家庭业务的高速增长验证了在千兆光纤渗透率提升的背景下，运营商固网业务有望依托千兆带宽带来的高附加值业务，成为运营商C端增长的全新动力。
资本支出加速倾斜，天翼云2023剑指千亿营收。公司预计2023年资本支出990亿元，同比增加7%。其中用于产业数字化的资本支出占比达到38.4%，同比提升9.1个百分点。从绝对额来看，产业数字化投资同比上升40%，2023年，中国电信将投资95亿元建设超56万机架，同时在算力方面投入195亿元，建设约6.2EFLOPS的算力。公司2022年产业数字化业务高速增长，达到1178亿元，同比增长19.7%。其中，天翼云收入579亿元，同比增长108%，继续加速发展，IaaS+PaaS国内市场份额达到11.6%，稳居行业前三。展望2023，公司给出了天翼云年收入超千亿的宏伟目标，我们认为，未来运营商公有云作为承载中国数据要素流通的桥梁与中国AI大模型触及万千需求的血管，除营收高速增长外，投资者更应关心其作为第二张“看不见的5G网”的核心资产价值。
持续重视经营质量与股东回报，打造世界一流企业。公司宣布派发末期股息每股人民币0.076元，全年合计派息每股0.196元，年度派息率达65%，同时公司承诺2023年派息率将达到70%以上，体现出公司对于股东回报的高度重视。同时，公司EBITDA持续提升，总债务同比下降36.4%，ROE提高0.1个百分点至6.4%，经营质量持续改善。展望未来，在数字中国的顶层设计下，公司有望依靠云改数转战略，通过基于数字化平台的综合智能信息服务，建设成为服务型、科技型、安全型的世界一流企业。
投资建议：维持“买入”评级。我们预计公司2023-2025年归母净利润分别为314.12/346.30/376.32亿元，yoy13.8%/10.2%/8.7%，对应EPS分别为0.34/0.38/0.41。考虑到运营商作为数字中国龙头，资产修复空间仍然可观，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示：云业务发展不及预期、C端业务竞争加剧。
