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高弹性火电+稳定性抽蓄和环保发电
22年度业绩扭亏为盈。皖能电力，安徽省火电公司，目前正通过收购发展风电/水电/核电等清洁能源。22Q1-3实现归母净利润4.3亿元，YOY大幅改善（21年同期亏损5.1亿元）。截至2021年底，公司控股发电装机容量为1085万千瓦，YOY+13.85%；2021年发电量365.68亿千瓦时，YOY+4.79%（同期安徽用电量增速11.7%），我们认为公司具备较好的发电主导能力，是一家重视利润的公司。
靠近煤炭产地，电力需求长期高增长。1、公司所在地安徽用电增速高于全国：安徽2021年和2022年用电量累计同比11.7%和10.2%，同期全国为10.7%和3.9%。安徽当地受益新能源等产业用电需求发展良好，2022H公司收入119亿，同比2021H的91亿增加了31%。2、靠近煤炭产地，2022H公司成本同比增长32%，参考港口煤价和当地煤价，我们测算2022H公司标煤价1100元/吨左右，较主流公司成本较低。3、在用电供需较好，而煤价相对较低的优势下，皖能电力在2023年1月31日公布业绩预告，2022年全年归母净利润3.5-5.1亿元，扭亏为盈（21年同期亏损13.4亿元）。
布局新能源及蓄能，优化产业结构布局。3月14日，公司发布公告，拟通过现金支付购买安徽皖能环保发电公司51%的股权（主营业务为环保发电）和响水涧/响洪甸/华东琅琊山/天荒坪四家蓄能公司（主营业务为抽水蓄能/水利发电）部分股权，交易价格22亿元。估值：按公司披露测算，控股环保发电增厚归母净利润1.27亿元，参股抽蓄增厚归母净利润0.35亿元，利润共增加约1.62亿元，按照4%的利息成本，增厚盈利约0.74亿，按照14倍PE算，增加价值约10.36亿元。从远期看，公司引入储能和环保发电资产，未来可能创造更多的盈利模式和协同，我们认为此收购价值并不止于我们计算的情况，公司的长期战略值得关注。
盈利预测与投资建议。我们预计公司22-24年净利润分别为4.4，9.6，14.0亿元，年均复合增速超70%。我们认为公司将持续受益煤价下跌和电价上涨，并且抽蓄、环保发电和新能源也将带来估值溢价。由于公司具备较好的成长性，参考可比公司23年PE，我们给予公司2023年16-18×PE，对应合理价值区间为6.88-7.74元/股，首次覆盖给予“优于大市”评级。
风险提示：煤价持续高位运行，公司新能源业务发展不及预期，电价下调风险。
