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溢价转让创高PB记录，未来优势协同效应明显
事件：3月15日，国联证券控股股东无锡市国联发展（集团）有限公司以91.05亿元成交价拍下民生证券34.71亿股股权，成为民生证券第一大股东。
点评：多因素驱动券商间整合提速。通过本次竞拍，国联证券与民生证券形成了兄弟公司，未来二者之间的整合尚存在多种可能，但无论是横向联合还是各自发展优势业务，对于国联证券而言，都将带来业务的协同优势，促进自身的长期发展和转型。
券商行业在近几年出现了整合加速的趋势，其中有市场和政策两方面的动因。从市场来看，全面注册制的落地和佣金费率的逐年下降，导致了券商之间的竞争格局发生变化。头部券商依靠资本市场、财富管理、投行等多元化业务的优势，不断提高市场份额和盈利能力，已经形成了较强的市场地位和资源优势，无需通过外延式并购来增强实力。而中小券商则面临着较大的发展压力和挑战，为了适应证券行业竞争加剧、集中度进一步提升的形势，通过外延并购有望实现规模扩张和业务拓展，寻求转型升级，快速做大做强，实现规模效应和业务互补。从政策方面来看，近年来，监管层也积极支持市场化并购来做大业务规模。2019年11月证监会提出六条举措打造航母级头部券商，其中一条就是支持行业内市场化的并购重组活动，促进行业结构优化及整合。
不同地域优势互补，利好经纪、财管业务扩展。国联证券的经纪及财富管理业务在其主营业务中占据重要地位，连续多年保持较高的增长率。国联证券在财富管理方面拥有较为丰富的产品线和服务能力，涵盖了资产配置、投资顾问、理财规划等多个领域，为客户提供个性化、专业化、智能化的服务。2021年,国联证券经纪及财富管理业务实现收入人民币8.47亿元，同比增长24.86%，位居行业前列。民生证券在财富管理方面也有较大的规模和影响力，2022年民生证券财富管理业务收入为13.78亿元。
地域方面，国联证券长期深耕长三角地区，公司战略核心业务—财务管理业务以江苏省为核心市场，同时覆盖上海、浙江、安徽等华东地区，拥有较强的区域优势和品牌影响力。2021年年报数据显示，公司在江浙沪营业厅数量占比约79%。而民生证券的前身为郑州市证券公司，截至2022年，拥有42家证券分公司及45家证券营业部，其中半数分布在河南地区。若完成并购后，两者可以实现地域优势互补，在不同的区域提供更加专业和个性化的经纪与财富管理服务，并增加其在全国范围内的覆盖率和渗透率。
溢价创近年最高PB。国联集团最终以91.05亿元拍得泛海控股持有的民生证券34.71亿股股份（约占总股本的30.30%），超出起拍价55.24%。据泛海控股2022年半年报，以民生证券净资产154.32亿元计算，PB估值为1.95倍，说明国联集团对民生证券的业务发展和市场前景有着较高的信心，愿意支付溢价来获取其第一大股东的身份。
我们认为，国联证券控股股东国联发展竞得民生证券30.3%股权，如后续得到监管核准，有望通过与民生证券的协同合作，增强自身在证券行业的优势和影响力，促进自身的长期发展和转型。若国联证券能够有效利用民生证券的资源和平台，提高自身的核心竞争力和盈利能力，则估值有较大的上行空间。预计2023-24年EPS分别为0.38/0.44元，对应2023年PE为28.30x，调高为“增持”评级。
风险提示：同业竞争风险，并购过程不及预期；后续整合不及预期，金融监管趋严。
