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夯实基本盘，电力交易正扬帆
事件概述
2023年4月11日，公司披露2022年年度报告，2022年公司实现营业收入3.60亿元，同比增长19.78%，实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润6708万元，同比增长13.36%，实现扣非归母净利润6126万元，同比增长6.86%。
分析判断:
服务电站数量净增长略超预期，基本盘业务坚实稳定
依托优越产品力持续夯实基本盘，服务电站数量净增长超预期。公司服务电站数量由2021年底的2399家增至2022年底的2958家，其中通过替代友商而获得的电站客户数量合计276家，净新增电站用户数量高达559家，同比增长23%，我们推算公司在新建场站中的市占率进一步提升。公司2022年实现功率预测SaaS服务费收入1.35亿元，同比增长17.65%。我们认为，从硅料、组件价格下跌趋势及风电开标来看，今年是风电及集中式光伏建设大年，公司基本盘业务有望持续实现高增。
升级改造需求推动主营收入实现较大幅度增长。公司新能源发电功率预测产品业务实现收入2.6亿元，同比大幅增长30.49%，原因是服务费外实现功率预测升级改造收入6106万元，同比增长204.96%。其他业务，公司新能源并网智能控制/新能源电站智能运营系统/电网新能源管理系统分别实现营业收入5507/740/1980万元，同比分别变动16.29%/-8.11%/-22.91%。
加大投入留住人才，股权激励影响利润。公司实施股权激励计入当期费用的金额为431.98万元，对上市公司净利润影响367.18万元，其中核心技术人员的股权激励费用为219.58万元，占比50.83%；刨除股权激励影响后的净利润增速约为19.6%。公司2022年销售/管理/研发费用率分别为25.9%/8.2%/17.6%，同比分别增长4.1/2.2/4.0pct，我们测算主要是平均人员薪酬增长所致。
新产品空间广阔，电力交易打开第二曲线
布局电力交易、储能、虚拟电厂，新产品同比接近翻倍。公司新产品包括电力交易辅助决策支持平台（2.0）、储能智慧能量管理系统、虚拟电厂等，2022年实现收入1107万元，同比增长93%接近翻倍。
电力市场建设明显提速，公司是电力交易最闪亮的星。公司发布的电力交易辅助决策平台2.0，针对新能源电站参与电力市场交易的痛点提供辅助服务，助力新能源电站获得更高的度电均价收益。我们认为，在电力市场化改革背景下，公司的电力交易类SaaS产品具有适用性广、优势突出、数据正循环构筑产品力壁垒的特点。公司电力交易产品在发电侧的目标客户群体主要是新能源电站，与其传统功率预测业务的客户群体重合，持续增长的功率预测用户为交易SaaS奠定坚实基本盘，一方面有利于形成从发电预测数据的正向循环，另一方面有望在后续显著提升客单价，打开收入空间。根据我们的假设与测算，公司2025年、2030年电力交易类SaaS产品服务业务空间分别有望达到6.25亿元、51.91亿元。我们认为，今年将是各省相继开展现货市场建设的高峰阶段，去年年末至今年年初的密集政策推动下，预计会有多个省份在下半年至明年实现省内电力现货市场的落地，现货市场将实现快速扩容，公司有望优先受益。
投资建议
国能日新作为新能源SaaS的领跑者，占据优质赛道且商业模式优秀，我们认为公司业绩进入高速通道。根据公司最新公告，我们重点调整了其他业务的增速，我们将23-24年营收预测由5.45/7.14亿元下调至4.84/6.08亿元，新增25年营收预测7.79亿元；将23-24年归母净利润预测由1.12/1.61亿元下调至0.98/1.25亿元，新增25年归母净利润预测1.74亿元；23-24年每股收益（EPS）预测由1.58/2.27元下调至1.38/1.76元，新增25年每股收益（EPS）预测为2.45元，对应2023年4月14日91.28元/股收盘价，PE分别为66/52/37倍，维持公司“买入”评级。
风险提示
1）市场份额被竞争对手挤压；2）新能源投资建设不及预期；3）收入依赖于单一产品的风险；4）新产品推广不及预期的风险；5）经济下滑导致的系统性风险。
