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2023年一季度业绩预告点评:客户“新头部”转型业绩提速,布局一体化压铸打开成长空间
事件概述:2023年4月14日,公司发布2023年一季报业绩预告,2023Q1公司预计实现归母净利润1.20-1.28亿元,同比+50%~+61%。
23Q1业绩符合预期,客户矩阵持续优化。据公司公告,2023Q1公司预计实现归母净利润1.20-1.28亿元,同比+50%~+61%;实现扣非归母净利润0.93-1.00亿元,同比+27%~+38%,主要系1)收入端:公司逐步加大市场开拓力度,持续优化客户结构,新能源汽车零部件业务营收稳步增长;2)利润端:公司持续提高内部管控能力,降本增效,原材料成本补差带来利润同比增加。此外,公司投资收益增加进一步增厚利润。公司主营业务为乘用车冲压焊接件及其相关模具,主要客户为本田、丰田、大众、通用、广汽乘用车、特斯拉等,2022年在合资中的市占率近20%,2018年公司收购江苏恒义,快速切入新能源零部件领域。我们判断公司凭借“均衡型”客户结构及产能、规模化优势有望全面发力,抢占特斯拉及头部自主品牌份额,完成第二次“新头部”客户结构的升级,拥有电动化时代下强“客户矩阵”。
收购江苏恒义切入电池盒领域,全产业链布局一体化压铸有望打开第二成长曲线。江苏恒义是国内主要的电池箱托盘供应商,其客户为小鹏、蔚来、理想、宁德时代、上汽时代等“新势力”及动力电池企业。2018年公司通过收购江苏恒义,快速切入新能源汽车零部件领域,新增了电池箱下托盘总成、电机壳、电驱总成等新能源汽车零部件业务,公司ASP由1500元大幅提升至4000元。2021年江苏恒义在国内电池托盘市占率约12%,属于头部公司。公司收购恒义后新建溧阳、宁德等工厂用于生产电池托盘,客户矩阵全面赋能恒义。近年来,江苏恒义全力协同广汽、比亚迪、小鹏等客户成功开发共计50多个电池箱产品,其中,2023年公司预计将投产18个新车型电池箱。同时公司联合宁德时代、上汽等开发新型CTP3.0系统集成,不断强化自身电池箱产品竞争力。凭借技术优势及客户资源,公司持续加大产能建设以满足下游客户需求,据公司公告,公司2020电池托盘产量仅12万套,预计到2022年底产能规模将超过100万套/年,我们预计2023年公司将具备165万套电池托盘产能,未来收入规模将进入1-10的快速放量期。此外,同时公司开启垂直化整合布局铝合金压铸产线建设,推进一体化压铸技术,有望大幅提升恒义利润率。江苏恒义有望在公司客户及资本双重赋能下收入及利润率共振上行,带动公司进入新一轮业绩增长期。
投资建议:预计公司2022-2024年实现营收56.66/71.36/97.9亿元,实现归母净利润3.71/5.07/8.00亿元,当前市值对应2022-2024年PE为23/17/11倍。看好轻量化业务为公司业务发展带来新的增长空间,维持“推荐”评级。
风险提示:原材料价格波动;行业竞争加剧导致毛利率降低等。