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扣非后净利润同比增长124.51%，磷酸铁放量在即
2022年实现扣非后净利润7.71亿元，同比增长124.51%。公司2022年实现营业收入34.47亿元，同比增长36.26%，实现扣非后净利润7.71亿元，同比增长124.51%。公司业绩大幅增长主要由于公司提升了磷化工产品主要原材料自给率，主要产品价格同比上涨，毛利率上升；同时公司新增磷酸产品的销售，为业绩增长提供助力。公司第四季度实现营业收入9.92亿元，环比增长约14.15%，同比增长15.49%，实现扣非后净利润1.59亿元，环比降低约34.02%，同比增长6.98%。
受益于磷化工行业高景气，主营产品价格上涨。随着新能源汽车磷酸铁锂动力电池市场规模的高速增长，叠加我国磷矿石供给增长有限，我国磷矿石市场价格快速提升。根据卓创资讯，磷矿石（28%湖北宜化）2022年均价890元/吨，同比增长80.92%；磷酸二氢钙2022年均价4573元/吨，同比增长35.80%；73%工业级磷酸一铵2022年均价6636元/吨，同比增长21.18%。
积极布局磷矿资源，拟新建磷矿250万吨/年。公司控股子公司福麟矿业已持有小坝磷矿、新桥磷矿山、鸡公岭磷矿三个采矿权，生产规模分别为80万吨/年、100万吨/年、250万吨/年，保障公司正常生产同时部分外销。公司通过定向增发募集资金拟新建“鸡公岭磷矿新建250万吨/年采矿工程项目”，建设周期4年，完全达产后公司预计实现净利润2.12-2.14亿元；同时，公司持有天一矿业49%股权，旗下老虎洞磷矿预计2023年年底完成建设，2024年开始逐步投产。2022年，福麟矿业磷矿石开采总量251.20万吨，外销66.58万吨。
磷酸铁放量在即，新项目带来业绩增量。公司于2021年9月与国轩控股达成战略合作，共同规划建设不低于50万吨/年产能的电池用磷酸铁生产线。2022年，公司“10万吨/年电池用磷酸铁项目”逐步投产；募投项目“10万吨/年食品级净化磷酸项目”为磷酸铁产线提供充足磷源；在建“100kt/a磷酸铁二期项目”、“100kt/a电池用磷酸铁项目（一期）”、“2kt/a电池用磷酸铁项目”等项目逐步推进，预计未来带来新业绩增量。
盈利预测与投资评级。考虑到化肥行业周期下行且公司部分项目有所延迟，我们下调对公司的盈利预测。我们预计2023-2025年公司净利润分别为11.62（-13.54%）、15.62（-7.13%）和18.12亿元（新增），对应EPS分别为2.32、3.11、3.61元。参考同行业可比公司估值，给予公司23年15倍PE，对应目标价34.80元（上期目标价38.92元，基于22年24倍PE，-10.59%），维持“优于大市”评级。
风险提示：项目投产进度不及预期，产品价格大幅波动，下游需求不及预期
