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多下游共振上行，工业阀门龙头持续受益
公司简介：工业阀门龙头，规模持续增长
公司是国内工业阀门龙头企业，深耕工业阀门制造，主营中高端阀门产品，覆盖石油、天然气、化工、多晶硅、电力等多个下游行业，已获得全球多家能源公司资格批准或成为其战略供应商。公司营收规模持续增长，2022年前三季度营收29.5亿元，同比+1.77%，2022年前三季度净利润3.5亿元，同比+19.96%。2015年以来期间费用率持续下降，费用管控良好。2022年前三季度合同负债1.9亿元同比+83.9%，公司在手订单充裕。
行业层面：多下游共振恢复，高端市场空间广阔
1）工业阀门是控制介质流动的重要附件，下游应用广泛。2021年全球市场规模达到760亿美元，中国市场占比17%是全球第二大阀门市场。2025年我国工业阀门制造业市场规模有望达到171亿美元，21-25年CAGR为6.1%。
2）目前我国高端工业阀门市场仍主要被欧洲及美国、日本知名厂商占据，中国阀门市场呈现典型“高进低出”特点，高端阀门多采用进口产品，进口阀门在市场中占比基本在20%左右，2022年我国进口阀门及类似装置规模达82.6亿美元，高端进口替代市场空间广阔。
3）下游需求共振上行，驱动行业稳步增长。行业层面来看，油气、能源、炼化、化工是工业阀门主要下游，合计占比达到55%。公司层面来看产品主要应用于化工、海工造船、LNG、多晶硅、管网运输等多个领域。
石油、天然气行业需求具备长期支撑，未来20年仍为主要一次能源有望提供稳健需求，LNG船、FPSO订单持续增长、化工行业产业结构升级等多下游需求上行为公司业务增长提供稳健助力。
3.公司发展：多元布局助力公司长足发展
1）公司持续投入研发，研发费用稳步提升支撑高端产品外拓，公司多领域高端阀门稳步推进。从产品端来看，公司持续扩大高附加值阀门生产能力，突破高端阀门技术；从下游应用端来看，公司持续开拓下游领域高端产品，提升下游覆盖，行业内竞争力持续增强。
2）多点布局+完善资质助力海内外市场双箭齐发：国内外市场同步推进，国内营收持续高增长，海外营收波动恢复，2016-2021年公司国内营收CAGR为28.6%。公司海外市场持续外拓，2020年亚太、中东与非洲为主要海外市场，截止目前公司已在荷兰、美国、意大利、新加坡、迪拜、尼日利亚及越南设立分子公司，海外布局完善，多地子公司设立助力海外销售持续增长。
3）产业链延伸提供稳健助力：公司持续向产业链上游延伸开拓，提升上游研发、生产及供货能力。目前已拥有砂铸件、精铸件及精密锻件自供能力，助力公司开拓大口径阀门及风电等领域需求。
盈利预测、估值及投资评级
我们预测公司2022-2024年营业收入分别为42.5/49.96/58.75亿元，同比增速分别为7.28%/17.55%/17.58%，归母净利润分别为4.72/6.03/7.44亿元，以当前总股本计算的摊薄EPS为0.63/0.81/0.99元。公司当前股价对2022-2024年预测EPS的PE倍数分别为21/16/13倍，我们选取阀门行业川仪股份、江苏神通及与公司布局相似的迪威尔作为可比公司。考虑公司作为国内工业阀门龙头企业，产能扩张助力公司规模效应持续提升，公司盈利能力持续恢复，在公司工业阀门主要下游需求共振上行背景下有望获得更高竞争优势，首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。
风险提示
1）公司下游需求不及预期风险；2）成本上升风险；3）汇率波动风险。
