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2022年业绩承压，在建项目进展顺利
公司发布2022年年报及2023年一季报。2022年公司实现营收88.92亿元，同比-4.06%；实现归母净利润11.78亿元，同比-27.52%。2023Q1公司实现营收17.56亿元，同比-21.68%，实现归母净利润0.72亿元，同比-80.63%。
烧碱：烧碱价格持续高位，业绩表现良好。2022年，烧碱行业需求增速高于产能增速，出口向好，烧碱价格同比增长62.20%，处于历史高位。公司灵活调整营销策略，积极拓展海外市场，实现烧碱销量68.74万吨，同比+0.42%；营收26.22亿元，同比+62.89%，毛利14.28亿元，同比+157.69%。
环氧丙烷：毛利同比下降。2022年国内环氧丙烷价格同比下降39.61%，原料丙烯价格平稳，给环氧丙烷业务带来较大压力。2022年，公司实现环氧丙烷销量22.83万吨，同比+2.41%；营收20.29亿元，同比-38.15%，毛利-1.41亿元，同比-111.15%。
在建项目顺利推进，未来有望贡献增量。碳三碳四综合利用项目，全部公辅工程已投用，碳三碳四综合利用项目（一期）——60万吨/年PDH装置及80万吨/年丁烷异构装置已于2022年7月31日实现机械中交。一期项目主要产品为丙烯和异丁烷，其中丙烯可代替公司现有丙烯采购，同时对外销售。我们认为未来随着24/74.2万吨/年环氧丙烷/甲基叔丁基醚（PO/MTBE）项目顺利投产，将充分消化公司一期丙烯产能及异丁烷产能，进而产业链条的延伸，提升公司盈利能力及综合竞争力。4000吨/年溴素项目2022年8月建成投产。除此之外，公司建设了滨州市氢能产业发展示范项目，打造了燃料氢净化压缩充装基地。滨城基地液氯原料供应系统改造项目顺利开车，实现了化工、东瑞两片区的液氯相互输送，为实现化工片区下游装置达产提供保障。
投资建议。我们预计公司2023~2025年归母净利润分别为8.09、11.15亿元和15.89亿元，EPS分别为0.39、0.54、0.77元，参照可比公司估值水平，给予其2023年15倍PE，对应目标价为5.85元（原目标价：11.76元，基于2021年14倍PE，下调50.25%），维持“优于大市”评级。
风险提示。产品价格大幅波动，下游需求不及预期，在建项目进展不及预期。
