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公司动态研究报告:粽子基本盘稳固,小店模型持续打磨
粽子有望量价齐升,持续推进粽+战略
粽子:五芳斋作为主品牌,重点发力中高端,推动品牌溢价及盈利能力提升,同时打造第二品牌弥补中低价位段。长期看粽子有望量价齐升,量增受益于龙头效应加强,粽子逐步日销化,价增来自于产品结构优化及品牌溢价提升。非粽:1)烘焙食品为第二增长曲线,其中月饼走差异化路线,推出高端流心糯月。今年将布局烘焙自有产线,提升自产比例,毛利率改善可期。2)第三曲线拟开发速度米面产品。
小店模型初有成效,渠道下沉加快推进
渠道端:1)连锁门店:餐饮+零售的传统门店将逐步进行关转缩(关店/转型/缩小门店面积),同时探索零售+轻餐饮小型门店模型。目前已初有成效,有望加快加盟节奏。2)经销渠道:当前全国区域布局已基本完善,未来拓展一方面是推进三四线城市渠道下沉,另一方面是开发烘焙及速冻类经销商资源。3)新兴渠道:积极布局抖音、快手等渠道。区域扩张:逐步开发江浙沪区域市县区,华中、华南、华北地级市和百强县,布局西北和东北省会、重点城市和空白市场,完善全国销售网络布局。
盈利预测
预计2023-2025年EPS为2.45/3.30/4.37元,当前股价对应PE分别为21/16/12倍,维持“买入”投资评级。
风险提示
宏观经济下行风险、市场竞争加剧风险、成本上涨、销售季节性波动风险、粽+战略推进不及预期等。