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经营回暖蓄势待发，不忘初心长期向好
事件：4月28日，华致酒行发布《2023年一季度报告》，公司一季度实现营收37.43亿元，同比增长5.32%；实现归母净利润1.01亿元，同比下降59.35%；基本EPS为0.24元/股，同比减少60.00%；加权平均净资产收益率为2.74%，同比减少4.30pct。
营收规模实现增长，盈利能力环比改善，反弹趋势有望延续。一季度销售毛利率/净利率分别为10.27%/2.79%，同比/环比分别-4.99/-3.77pct及-4.27/+1.39pct。由于春节旺季主要以高端名酒及中低端地产酒修复为主，名酒产品的强劲动销保障营收实现增长，毛利率受到部分名酒毛利下降及结构压力影响；环比来看，销售/管理费用率分别下降4.60/1.89pct，净利率得到环比改善。经营性现金流大幅好转，同增322303.49%，主要系本期销售商品收到的现金增加，同时购买商品支付的现金减少所致。全年来看，23年整体环境较22年改善，主要是消费场景修复确定及经济修复趋势确定，精品酒销售有望逐渐回暖。费用上，22年大量扩张销售队伍，整合打造“华致铁军”，人员招聘现已基本到位，预计相关费用的增加也已达峰。
23年确定“两点一线”工作战略，抓好华致酒行的开发，以及金蕊天荷等精品酒销售。1）公司已开始着力发展3.0门店，引进高净值客户加盟合作，走大店模式、高端模式、精品模式，尽快实现品牌形象上的大幅提升，抓住时间窗口实现定位卡位。公司未来将重点开发酒行，优化酒库，与其他连锁酒行相比定位更高，打造全球范围内的高端名酒一站式采购。2）金蕊天荷产品是公司去年成功开发的高品质差异化产品，荣获比利时布鲁塞尔国际烈性酒大奖赛全场最高奖项“大金奖”及“中国最佳烈性酒”称号；1.5L差异化包装贴近实际消费需求，元素寓意更丰富适合多场景选用，上市以来获得良好反馈，今年有望帮助荷花酒整体实现较大幅度增长。
坚持“名酒厂金牌服务员”定位不动摇，经历疫情考验厂商关系进一步加强。对上游，公司与酒厂保持密切联系，坚持维护酒厂利益和市场秩序，最大化保证名酒畅销动力；对下游，公司通过畅销名酒加强与下游网点的粘性，精准服务B端及C端客户，是联通小B端的最好渠道。名酒配额稳中有升，显示了认可与信任，厂商合作走向深化。长期看，名酒厂加强扁平化和直销渠道建设并不意味着放弃经销商，而将加速渠道洗牌和整合；华致酒行拥有遍布全国的广泛渠道力，并打造独立的消费号召力，随着公司酒类流通份额持续增长，厂商关系持续加强，名酒配额有望匹配公司成长持续增加。
投资建议：公司凭借多年对产品“保质保真”的坚持所积累的消费者信任以及不断扩大的品牌影响力有望带动公司进入正向循环，公司在精品酒和自有品牌的发力具备一定基础和可延续性。22年公司逆势实现规模和占有率提升，核心价值得到加强，利润端压制因素正在消解，23年盈利能力有望修复。我们预计公司2023-2025年EPS为1.69、2.31、2.93元，当前股价对应PE分别为15.6x、11.4x、9.0x，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示：疫情反复风险；消费修复不及预期；价格走势不及预期；食品安全问题；市场波动风险；消费税政策可能发生变化。
