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点评报告：多业务板块布局，打造业绩增长曲线
报告关键要素:公司实现了免热处理合金在某高端新能源汽车电池包箱体及托盘支架加强板结构件上的市场化应用，目前正在积极与下游压铸厂和汽车主机厂推进项目合作，已与文灿集团股份有限公司签署了《战略合作框架协议》，在新能源汽车的大型一体化车身结构件、一体化铸造电池盒箱体等产品的材料开发和工艺应用领域建立了战略合作关系。
投资要点:成本优化叠加产品高端化，中间合金业务实现业绩高增长。2022年公司功能中间合金板块实现销量8.56万吨，同比增长14.29%，营业收入实现21.21亿元，同比增长31.74%，扣除股权激励摊销费用的归母净利润为1.55亿元，同比增长43.44%。其中，2022年公司的高端晶粒细化剂销量为9,433吨，同比增长123.81%，航空航天级特种中间合金销量408.25吨，同比增长58.28%，高端产品占比增加为公司贡献了更多业绩增量。包头稀土功能中间合金工厂在能源、材料和少人化生产上的低成本优势明显，助力降本增效。未来，随着轨道交通、高压铝电缆等行业基于强度和减重、成本等要求对铝产品使用规模不断扩大，高端铝材将成为未来主要增长市场，高端合金需求增加有望提升公司盈利空间。
铝合金产能加速释放，利润大幅增长。2022年公司铝合金车轮板块产量为1816万只，同比增长17.18%,销量为1748万只，同比增长18.99%，营业收入实现73亿元，同比增长39.62%，扣除股权激励摊销费用的归母净利润为3.17亿元，同比增长159.77%。公司在中国、泰国、美国、韩国、巴西和墨西哥拥有多家子公司，随着泰国工厂产能释放，墨西哥工厂建设提速，公司的生产能力和产品销量得到大幅提升。2022年，公司采用的金属材料和海运费联动的定价模式，降低了材料成本和海运费对公司利润的影响，叠加人民币贬值和国内外铝价正挂等因素的影响，使得公司铝合金车轮业务的利润水平大幅增长。
再生铸造铝合金盈利承压，公司持续优化原料与产品结构。受全球流动性变化、地缘政治以及能源因素的影响，铝价高位震荡导致公司存货跌价。同时，汽车产业链停摆，使得公司铸造铝合金产品库存较高不能及时消耗，造成业绩承压。2022年公司再生铸造铝合金板块实现销量83.70万吨，同比减少3.44%，营业收入实现119亿元，同比增长1.27%，扣除股权激励摊销费用的归母净利润为1.43亿元，同比减少35.26%。公司积极克服市场压力，结合领先的再生铝利用技术，进一步提高再生铝的使用比例，降低生产成本提高利润水平。2022年公司再生铝资源采购量56.63万吨，同比增长3.1%。同时公司加大市场开发力度，持续优化产品市场结构，加快新能源汽车、一体化压铸行业客户布局，从而保证了销量和营业收入的稳定。
锂电材料即将投产，打造未来新增长点。公司掌握电池级氟化钠、六氟磷酸钠的储备技术和完备的生产场地。报告期内，公司全速推进项目建设，目前生产车间及其他配套工程已基本完工，设备已安装到位，市场开发同步进行中，项目即将竣工投产。量产后的氟化盐产能将与中间合金业务协同发展，进一步实现降本提质的目标，同时六氟磷酸锂、电子级氟化钠等锂钠电池电解质产品将直接对外销售，为公司在原有业务领域之外，打造业绩增长的第二曲线。
盈利预测与投资建议:考虑到公司产品实现高端化，产能加速释放，略微上调23年公司营收预测，预计公司2023-2025年营业收入分别为251.67/306.90/357.57亿元；归母净利润7.42/10.55/13.00亿元；
EPS分别为1.19/1.69/2.08元/股，维持公司“增持”评级。
风险因素：新能源汽车与燃油车产销量不及预期；一体化压铸渗透率不及预期；锂电材料业务产能释放不及预期；铝价波动风险。
