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产能放量，渠道提效，产品升级多重共振
电动两轮车领先企业，股权结构稳定。爱玛科技是电动两轮车行业龙头企业之一，旗下拥有电动自行车、电动轻便摩托车、电动摩托车等产品，具有完善的绿色中短途出行交通工具产品体系。公司股权结构稳定，股权变动多为家庭内部安排、个人职业发展、个人资金需求等。公司于2017年12月、2021年11月、2023年3月多次发布股权激励计划，对充分调动员工积极性、激发人才内生动力和潜力具有显著效果。
行业情况：新国标替换需求有限，格局向龙头集中。总量预测：我们预计2023-2025年行业销量预计为5115/5102/5653万辆。1）新国标替换需求：我们认为由新国标带来的违规车替换需求预计于2022年达到高峰后逐步回落，主要原因为替换需求多已释放+过渡期基本涵盖自然使用寿命；2）出口：政策推动下东南亚地区电动两轮车行业将迎来高速发展期。东南亚市场潜力大+自贸协定保驾护航+中国企业积极布局等因素影响下中国电动两轮车企业在东南亚地区的出口量有望持续攀升；3）自然更新需求：假设换车周期为5年，2023-2025年更新需求为2018-2020年销量。格局预测：进一步向龙头集中。品牌认知不断加深叠加新国标带来的高行业准入门槛，行业集中度将不断提升。
未来核心看点：产能放量+渠道提效+产品升级：1）产能——积极扩产，产能持续释放。爱玛通过2021年IPO+2023年发行可转债20亿元提升资金实力，积极进行扩产，目前在建生产基地包括重庆基地二期、台州基地、丽水基地、贵港基地等，我们预计2025年爱玛实际投产年产能可达1845万辆，同比2022年底增速+98%。2）渠道——新建门店+升级原有门店。门店升级：公司于2021年通过IPO募资其中4.88亿元对3773家门店进行装修升级，挖掘现有门店的销售潜力。新建门店：公司于2023年募资5.3亿元对11463家新建经销商营销门店的装修投入进行补贴，扩大市场覆盖面、提高营销效率。3）产品——引擎系列改善产品结构。技术成果：引擎MAX提升整车的续航里程和电池的使命寿命。同时提升公司单车盈利水平。
盈利预测与投资评级：我们预计公司2023-2025年营业总收入253/299/364亿元，归属母公司净利润23.94/29.80/39.53亿元，同比+28%/+24%/+33%，对应PE为13/11/8倍，选取A股、港股共五家两轮车同业公司作为爱玛科技的可比公司，可比公司估值均值为21/16/12倍。鉴于公司产能放量+渠道提效+产品升级，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。
风险提示：行业总量增长不及预期；行业价格战情况超出预期
