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兼论资本债投资价值：存量不良基本化解，基本面迎拐点
股权结构稳定，经营受民企股东影响较小。自2020年中起，民生银行的前十大股东没有发生变化，其持股比例之和稳定在60%以上；董事会中大家保险（国企性质）派出2位董事，其余重要民企股东不超过1位股东董事。截至2022年末，关联方贷款余额合计707.43亿元，关联方贷款仅占贷款总额的1.71%，泛海控股及其关联方贷款存在逾期状况，其余关联贷款风险可控。
公司治理改善，高管主动增持股票。当前，包括董事长、行长等多位高管有大行及金融监管工作经历。2020年和2021年高管累计主动增持414万股民生银行股票。截至2022年末，包括董事长及行长在内的多名高管持有民生银行股票，合计持股439万股。这充分彰显了管理层对未来发展的充足信心。
资产规模大，且为国内系统重要性银行。23Q1民生银行资产规模达7.6万亿元，十倍于当年的包商银行，且为2022年19家国内系统重要性银行之一。资产规模如此之大，其面临的监管严格程度远远超过一般的银行，一旦出风险对金融体系的冲击将出乎想象。
资产投向稳健，结构优化，债券投资以政府债券为主。民生银行资产以信贷及债券投资为主，2022年底贷款占总资产比重为56.1%。近三年信贷结构明显优化，房地产贷款占比显著下行，基建相关行业贷款占比明显上升。截至2022年底，债券投资中政府债券、政策性金融债券、银行及非银机构金融债券占78.54%，配置风格稳健。其中，政府债券持仓规模达1.13万亿元。
存量不良基本化解，资产质量改善。2020-2022年累计清收处置不良和存在风险隐患的资产超3000亿元，存量风险基本化解完成。2022年实现不良贷款额、不良贷款率、逾期贷款额、逾期贷款率“四降”。由于近几年经营风险偏好明显下移，存量不良基本化解，后续资产质量或显著改善。
经营业绩回暖，给予增持评级。2020-2022年，化解存量不良及经营模式转变，营收大幅下降。1Q23民生银行为少数营收与盈利均正增长的股份行之一，营收扭转了近三年连续下降之趋势，归母净利润增速3.7%。我们预计民生银行未来业绩将明显改善。首次覆盖，给予增持评级，目标价4.87-5.48元/股。
风险提示：股权可能变动；金融让利，息差收窄；经济超预期下行等。
