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深度研究报告：行稳致远，未艾方兴
国内天然碱龙头，聚焦主业再出发。公司为国内稀缺的以天然碱法为生产工艺的纯碱厂商，在完成业务整合与聚焦之后，现已形成天然碱法制取纯碱及小苏打+煤制尿素两大业务体系，截至22年末，公司纯碱、小苏打及尿素产能分别居于全国第五、第一及第十。目前公司控股60%的子公司银根矿业正全力推进建设860万吨/年大型天然碱项目，其中一期500万吨/年纯碱、40万吨/年小苏打项目计划于2023年6月投料试车，两期项目建成后，公司将具备960万吨（权益产能615万吨）纯碱产能，有望跃居国内纯碱行业龙头。
纯碱：行业高景气延续，天然碱放量在即。目前纯碱生产工艺仍以化学合成法为主，22年全球/我国天然碱工艺占比分别约18%/6%，但凭借在成本、环保及能耗等方面的显著优势，天然碱有望主导行业后续增量。从需求端来看，国内纯碱需求稳步增长，22年表观消费量2658万吨，其中下游浮法玻璃/光伏玻璃需求占比分别约40%/10%。往后看，地产竣工数据有望持续回暖，并带动平板玻璃需求企稳回升；而新能源端应用需求在光伏装机景气及碳酸锂产能扩张的背景下有望维持高增长，我们测算23-25年国内纯碱实际需求量分别约2957/3113/3284万吨，市场空间有望持续扩容。从供给端来看，纯碱行业政策约束逐渐显现，22年行业有效产能收窄至3120万吨，同比-3.4%，中小产能装置在经济性及环保方面劣势较大，低效产能或将加速退出。后续行业增量主要来自于银根矿业860万吨天然碱新建项目，按照在建项目当前投产预期，2025/2027年天然碱产能占比有望由6%提升至18%/23%以上。天然碱本身拥有极高的资源壁垒，国内纯碱行业竞争格局有望重塑。
天然碱资源禀赋铸就核心优势，公司高质量成长有望逐步兑现。纯碱作为公司的业务核心，主要由中源化学及银根矿业两家控股子公司开展运行，其中中源化学是目前国内最大的天然碱加工企业，区位及成本优势明显，盈利能力稳步提升；作为目前国内已探明的最大天然碱矿，银根矿业阿拉善塔木素天然碱矿在矿物品位、埋藏深度、用煤成本等方面均具备更显著的优势，相较于安棚/吴城天然碱矿正常年份下825/902元/吨的完全成本，阿碱项目完全成本有望降至550元/吨左右。往后看，纯碱行业竞争格局将归于成本竞争，随着煤炭价格的趋稳下行，未来两期项目全面投产运行后，公司纯碱的单位成本有望进一步降低。按照行业边际成本1600-1800元/吨的纯碱价格，阿碱项目全面投产后，对应公司纯碱底部毛利约在43-54亿元区间，盈利有望实现大幅增厚。
投资建议：首次覆盖，给予公司“强推”评级。我们预计公司2023-2025年可分别实现归母净利润32.73、38.29、42.45亿元，对应EPS分别为0.90、1.06、1.17元，当前市值对应PE分别为7x、6x、6x。采用相对估值法，以2023年5月26日收盘价计，可比公司2023年平均PE为9倍，而公司PE仅7倍。考虑到纯碱行业后续新增产能主要来自于公司，公司有望凭借成本及产能优势进一步巩固核心竞争力，获取更高市场份额。我们给予公司2023年10倍PE，对应目标价9.0元，首次覆盖，给予“强推”评级。
风险提示：能源价格大幅波动风险、行业产能释放过快风险、下游需求不及预期、产能建设及释放进度不及预期。
