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长期逻辑不改，布局时点再现
产品聚焦次高端及以上，渠道紧抓大店与大企资源。我们近期参加了公司股东大会及投资者交流会，公司坚持长期主义，战略推进一以贯之，本部聚焦拳头产品1915、甲等15/20等，投入力度大。市场布局上，省会石家庄是第一站，年初对模式和组织架构进行调整；攻破经济强市唐山，直营体系取得成效；稳住衡水基地市场。渠道策略上，由B端投入逐步转移至消费者，紧抓大店资源与大企业资源，强化政商用酒品牌竞争力，模式持续创新，推出虚拟入股，绑定具备服务能力和意识的客户，石家庄的经销商已经完成80-90%的股份制改革。武陵酒首要将湖南省内做精做细，同时积极布局广东、福建、河南、河北等重点市场。
全年目标稳健，股权激励下力争更卓越增长，降本增效成果显现。交流会上，公司重审年报中披露的2023年全年目标：主营业务收入51.7亿，同比+11%，营业总成本44.2亿以内，同比+10%以内，经测算主营业务利润同比+20%左右。这一目标也延续了公司一贯稳健经营的节奏。在卓越绩效管理、股权激励推行后，公司不给发展设上限，力争行业上游，22年疫情扰动下，仍超额完成全年目标，预计23年仍大概率超出全年既定目标。公司今年加强预算管理，持续推动降本增效，目前效果显现，每月进度汇报，每季调整目标，随着收入增长，费用率会持续改善。
省酒“一超两强”格局形成，经营周期向上共同做大冀酒份额。我们近期走访了河北多家龙头酒企，目前河北省酒形成“一超两强”格局，并在价格带上错位竞争。一超“老白干”发力300元以上政商务价格带，进行核心资源的捆绑和意见领袖的公关，引领省酒实现品牌突围，河北王地位更加稳固。“两强”丛台、板城，发力百元及以上大众主流消费价格带，大单品丛台窖龄、活分子及板城和顺系列，符合当地饮酒习惯，全省招商布局加速。河北饮酒风气浓厚，市场容量近300亿，足以容纳2家50亿以上省酒，过去由于体制机制原因，省酒市场份额及话语权偏弱，目前三家酒企机制逐步理顺，经营周期向上，有望协同做大冀酒市场份额，引领省酒品牌突围，势能形成。
长期发展逻辑不改，下蹲蓄力后劲十足。近期市场对公司长期结构提升逻辑、业绩释放弹性，及人员稳定性有所分歧。我们认为，公司正在坚定做对的事情，假以时日方可验证成效。本部聚焦品牌提升，严控市场秩序，Q1牺牲发货量来消化库存，23Q1末期库存相比同期较为良性，核心产品批价表现较稳，竞争优势强化。武陵酒行业逆风期省外积极造势接触客户，准备充分且不急于短期销量。业绩释放上，公司净利率仍远低于行业平均水平，目前降本增效效果显现，预计随着收入体量提升将迎来利润加速点。人员上，公司内部团队稳定性处于多年来最好的时点，自上而下积极性较高，老白干文化与旗下四家并购酒企也实现较好融合。
经营稳定势头向上，底部布局时点再现，维持“强烈推荐”投资评级。近期由于多重负面传闻叠加，股价有所回调，但我们认为公司经营稳定性强，发展势头向上，业绩潜在弹性空间大，维持23-25年每股收益为0.79元、1.22元、1.76元，目标价37元不变，底部布局时点再现，25年第二阶段目标市值500亿，维持“强烈推荐”投资评级。
风险提示：省内竞争加剧、高端酒增长不及预期、减费不及预期等
