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内贸化学品航运龙头,看好其进入发展良性循环
盛航股份为国内液体化学品航运龙头企业之一。中长期来看,行业竞争壁垒较高,石化终端需求稳定,公司管理团队优质,具备较强的成长性。目前公司估值较低,维持“强烈推荐”评级。
内贸化学品航运市场领导者,深入绑定大客户。盛航股份主营国内沿海、长江中下游液体化学品及成品油水上运输业务,为国内液体化学品航运龙头企业之一。公司与中石化、中石油、中化集团、恒力石化、浙江石化等大型石化生产企业形成了良好的合作关系,2022年来自于前五大法人客户的营业收入占同期营业收入的比例为60%以上,客户相对集中。
近年来伴随国产炼化产业发展,公司规模扩张较快。公司主营业务主要为化学品运输和油品运输,其中化学品运输收入贡献占比为86%,油品运输收入占比为10%。2016-2022年公司营业收入大幅增长,CAGR为26.57%;2016-2022年,公司归母净利润CAGR为37.84%。截至2022年底,公司控制的内外贸船舶合计30艘,其中内贸化学品船24艘,成品油船4艘,外贸化学品船舶共2艘,总运力1.34万吨。化学品运输由于高壁垒,同时大客户对运价敏感性较低,毛利率保持高位,公司近年来化学品运输毛利率大约为40%。
国内石化产业链蓬勃发展,化学品航运供给端长期受限。需求端:1)国产化学品渗透率上升。对二甲苯、乙二烯等产品进口依存度维持下滑趋势。2)大炼化项目密集落地。自2015年以来,我国迎来大炼化的扩产热潮,原油炼化能力从15年5.2亿吨增长至22年7.04亿吨,CAGR达4.4%。3)2023年以来石油及制品与服装纺织类商品零售额增速趋回升,下游需求的恢复将拉动石化产成品的运输需求。供给端:行业处于特许经营赛道,产能投放面临较高壁垒。伴随交通运输部对沿海化学品航运行业监管要求日益严格,预计未来行业供给端严格受限的趋势将会持续。由于公司管理团队优秀,对于运输安全把控较好,同时和大客户合作持续深入,因此运力供给得以快速增长,形成发展的良性循环。
投资建议:中长期来看,液体危化品航运行业竞争壁垒较高,同时石化终端需求稳定,头部企业集中度持续提升;盛航股份安全管理能力较强,并可以持续通过并购实现运力有序扩张,具备较强的成长性。我们预计公司2023-2025年营收同比增长15%、27%、26%;归母净利润分别为2.2、3.1、4.0亿元,同比分别增长19%、41%、28%。对应2023年盈利PE仅为16.7x,估值相对较低,维持“强烈推荐”评级。
风险提示:宏观经济下滑、船舶交付不及预期、大客户经营业绩下滑等。