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转型综合物流服务商，长期成长无虞
经营历史悠久，内生+外延迈向全流程跨境综合物流服务商：公司于1984年成立，是改革开放后最早的一级国际货运代理企业之一。在全球货运代理（2022）排行榜中，公司分别位居全球海运货代、全球空运货代的第10名和第15名。公司具有央企底色，历经两次股权划转，目前公司控股股东为中国物流集团，实控人为国资委。公司深耕国际空海运货代业务，通过内生增长与外延并购布局跨境电商及综合物流，业务版图不断扩张。国际空海运货代为基本盘，2022年收入合计占比74.1%；跨境电商物流已成为第二大业务支柱，2022年收入占比15.6%。
跨境物流行业规模庞大集中度较低，综合物流龙头迎发展良机：跨境物流包含揽，仓，关，干，关，转，配七个环节，物流链条较长，参与者较多。2022年跨境物流市场规模达4.41万亿，格局较为分散。行业竞争以货量规模与服务能力为主，品牌出海及跨境电商高景气下，客户需求朝多元化发展，市场对于“端到端”的全程物流服务能力更为看重，提升直客服务能力成为跨境物流企业核心战略。行业迎来洗牌期，综合物流服务商多维度并购提升服务能力，头部企业收入规模及盈利能力有望持续增长。
国际货代为公司基石业务，直客持续贡献稳定收益。公司货代业务以国际空海运进出口业务为主，主要赚取服务费及运费价差。公司逐步舍弃平台型、资金型低附加值简单代理业务，坚持全球化网络布局。通过与承运人建立长期紧密合作关系，以及海外网点的持续布局，公司全链条服务能力稳定提升，空海运直客业务量占比持续改善，2022年空运直客业务量为23.6万吨，占比由2021年H1的66%提升至2022年H2的78%，海运直客业务量为43.7万箱，占比由2021年H1的44%提升至2022年H2的60%。直客客户持续贡献稳定收益。根据TAC及Wind数据，2022年H2香港至北美及欧洲运价同比回落26%及5%，海运运价CCFI同比回落25%，但公司空海运毛利仍分别实现同比增长8%及21%。展望未来，随着公司海外网点逐步完善，直客服务能力稳步提升，公司货运代理业务有望穿越周期实现稳定增长。
复盘海外货代龙头德迅发展历程，华贸物流成长空间广阔。海外货代龙头德迅创立于德国，公司主要通过并购提升现有市场竞争力并填补业务空白，根据公司官网，2022年底公司共有1300个网点，服务于106个国家，网络覆盖全球。公司营收及净利润保持稳健增长，2013年-2022年营收CAGR达9.7%；净利CAGR达17.0%。2014-2023年股价年化涨幅达9.12%，同期瑞士SMI指数年化涨幅为3.45%，超额收益约为5.67pts。公司股价与空海运运价周期相关度较高，2020年至2021年7月年受益于空海运运价景气而快速上涨，2021下半年由于海外需求逐步疲软，公司股价逐步回落，2022年底触底反弹。复盘海外龙头德迅发展历程，华贸物流受益于品牌出海及跨境电商物流景气红利，海外网点并购扩张下直客服务能力提升，营收及盈利能力有望持续增长。
投资建议：
考虑到公司传统货代业务的客户结构持续优化、跨境电商物流业务稳健成长，细分物流市场综合物流服务能力不断拓展，直客服务能力提升下，我们看好公司盈利中枢上移和长期发展空间。我们预计公司2023-2025年归母净利润分别为9.7/11.6/13.7亿元，对应现股价PE为12/10/9倍，首次给予买入-A的投资评级。考虑到公司长期成长性，给予公司2024年15倍估值，对应12个月目标价为13.32元。
风险提示：1）海外贸易需求回落导致货运价格大幅降低；2）市场竞争加剧导致份额流失；3）跨境电商增长放缓导致物流增速不及预期。
