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事件点评：二季度业绩同环比改善，国能矿业西藏盐湖项目环评获批
事件:
7月17日，蓝晓科技发布2023年半年度业绩预告，2023年上半年预计实现归母净利润3.36亿元-3.55亿元，同比增长70%-80%。
投资要点:
多领域驱动成长，公司二季度业绩同环比大幅改善
7月17日，蓝晓科技发布2023年半年度业绩预告，2023年上半年预计实现归母净利润3.36亿元-3.55亿元，同比增长70%-80%。其中，单二季度公司预计实现归母净利润2.02-2.21亿元，同比增长72.56%-89.45%，环比增长50.70%-65.45%。公司二季度业绩同环比大幅改善，一方面受益于主营业务持续稳健发展，存量市场市占率不断提升；同时，新兴领域如固相合成载体等品种快速放量，产品结构进一步优化，盈利能力持续加强。随着公司应用领域不断拓宽，以及市占率的持续提升，公司未来呈高成长。
国能盐湖项目环评获批，对公司利润及提锂业务发展产生积极影响
7月21日，西藏城投发布公司公告，近日，西藏城投参股公司国能矿业收到西藏自治区生态环境厅《关于西藏自治区日土县结则茶卡盐湖矿区（改扩建）6万吨锂盐矿产资源（3万吨工业级氢氧化锂）开发利用项目环境影响报告书的批复》。据蓝晓科技2022年1月11日发布的关于签订西藏结则茶卡盐湖提锂合同的公告，该项目采取委托加工方式，国能矿业负责提供卤水资源及淡水、电、厂房等公共配套，并按照合同约定向蓝晓科技支付委托加工费及产品销售收入分成。蓝晓科技在项目所在地设立项目公司，利用自有技术、资金建设一期10000t/a盐湖卤水提取氢氧化锂生产线，并按本合同约定接受国能矿业委托生产加工氢氧化锂产品，后续视项目运行情况及双方意向投建二期20000t/a、三期20000t/a氢氧化锂生产线。该项目环评获批及履行，将对蓝晓科技营业收入和营业利润产生积极影响；同时，本项目为蓝晓科技盐湖提锂技术在青海实现多个大型产业化项目后，首次在西藏地区实现的产业化突破，该项目的实施，有望成为西藏地区的大型工业化盐湖提锂示范项目，对高海拔、低镁锂比、高锂含量卤水提锂的产业化具有重要意义，有助于该技术向同类型盐湖的拓展，对公司自身资源及新能源业务板块发展起到积极影响。
GLP-1类减肥降糖药市场规模高增，公司固相合成载体充分受益
公司固相合成载体用于多肽药物、核酸药物合成，拥有丰富的产品品系。2022年以来，公司固相合成载体产品已签订单总额数亿元，公司凭借seplife2-CTC固相合成载体和sieber树脂已成为多肽领域的主要供应商。据CPHI制药在线，利拉鲁肽、司美格鲁肽、替尔泊肽等重磅GLP-1产品均属于多肽类药物，其主要生产方式可分为生物发酵、化学合成两种技术路径，礼来公司替尔泊肽主要采用化学合成进行制备，其中固相合成载体是多肽类药物化学合成过程中关键材料。据礼来公司官网，公司替尔泊肽注射液Mounjaro2022年6月在美国上市，2022年全球销售额达4.83亿美元，2023Q1单季度销售额达5.69亿美元，呈快速放量趋势。同时，据蓝晓科技公司公告，GLP-1类糖尿病及肥胖症治疗药物2021年全球市场规模约为160亿美金，2030年有望增长至约400亿美金，这将给公司固相合成载体和sieber树脂提供广阔的潜在市场空间。
盈利预测和投资评级
综合考虑公司生命科学等业务快速发展，我们对公司业绩进行上调，预计公司2023-2025年归母净利润分别为8.27、10.95、14.71亿元，对应PE分别36、27、20倍，考虑公司未来成长性，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示
政策落地情况、新产能建设进度不达预期、盐湖提锂项目收入确认进度不及预期、原材料价格波动、环保政策变动、GLP-1类减肥降糖药市场增长不及预期。
