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Q2业绩超19年同期，景区提质扩容开启
客流强势复苏，Q2业绩超19年同期
公司发布2023年中报业绩预告：1）1H23公司预计实现归母净利1.4-1.5亿元/同比扭亏/较19年同期增长82%-95%，扣非净利1.38-1.48亿元/同比扭亏/较19年同期增长85%-99%。2）分季度看：2Q23公司预计实现归母净利0.7-0.8亿元/同比扭亏/较19年同期增长21%-39%，扣非归母净利0.69-0.79亿元/同比扭亏/较19年同期增长22%-40%。我们认为公司Q2业绩增长的原因主要为居民出行意愿强烈，客流大幅增长带动公司盈利释放。川零公路峨眉段、成乐高速扩容项目乐山城区过境复线段分别于22年5月、23年5月建成通车，使得成都至峨眉山车程缩短。在补偿性需求和周边交通改善的驱动下，今年五一假期峨眉山景区客流较19年同期增长86%，端午假期首日/次日峨眉山景区客流分别较19年同期增长36%/85%。
金顶索道改造有望改善公司旺季接待瓶颈，显著增厚利润
公司发布公告，拟投资3.5亿元实施金顶索道改造提升项目。1）主要内容：对现有客货两用索道的客运和货运功能进行分离改造，仅保留其货运功能，并将其客运功能剥离至新建索道；2）项目选址：新建索道位于目前金顶已有的往复式客运索道旁；3）建设期限及资金来源：18个月，资金为公司自筹。我们预计此次索道改造将有利于公司利润增长：因金顶片区为峨眉山景区核心游览区域，年游览人数占峨眉山景区整体游客量90%，而乘坐金顶索道上金顶游客量占金顶景区游览人数的比例超过80%。此前，峨眉山金顶区域仅有一条往复式客运索道+一条客货两用索道，实际运力共2000人/小时，在旅游旺季期间受山岳型景区游览时间集中度高的特点影响，运力难以满足市场需求（金顶日游客容量3.1万人）。参考可研报告，此次金顶索道改造完成后，金顶区域索道实际运力将提升50%至3000人/小时（其中新索道预计为2000人/小时），预计新索道年均可实现2.1亿元营业收入，1.3亿元净利润，考虑原客货索道停运，我们测算新索道投运有望增厚公司业绩0.5-0.6亿，相当于2019年归母净利的22%-26%。
短期关注暑期旺季催化，长期看好多元化业务发展+景区提质扩容
短期来看，在暑期旺季和十一长假的催化下，公司受益于较高的经营杠杆，在旺季客流带动下业绩弹性有望进一步释放。中长期看，公司目前正深化拓展“一杯茶”、“一张网”、“一台剧”、“一营地”、“一文创”等文旅新兴产业发展，同时推进主景区提质扩容，未来成长空间有望打开。
盈利预测与投资建议
预计公司2023-25年归母净利各为2.8、3.2、4亿元，对应PE各为21X、18X、15X，维持“推荐”评级。
风险提示：经营风险；项目投资风险；索道安全风险。
